AP  STATISTICS                                                                                     2010

AP Statistics is unlike any mathematics course you have ever taken. In this course you are expected to read. to write and to master  a large variety of technological forms. You are expected to think, to evaluate, and to predict using statistically correct language. Perhaps the most difficult part of AP Statistics is that you can never be 100% certain of any results. Yet statistics is becoming increasingly vital in our information-based society. It is my hope that you will find this course fun and rewarding, but at the same time challenging and thought provoking. As you enter into the AP Statistics course you need to bring a commitment to work hard every day, and I will make a commitment to make the class relevant and applicable. Together we can make this a fantastic course !!

Philosophy of AP Statistics ;

The AP Statistics course is designed to introduce students to the major concepts and tools for collecting, analyzing, and drawing conclusions from data. Students will be exposed to several broad conceptual themes of statistics, i.e. exploring data, planning a study, modeling and anticipating patterns, and statistical inference. This course follows the curriculum established by the College Board, while also including material which will guide students in conducting and communicating their own statistical analysis. Students will learn basic statistical terms and techniques through multimedia presentation of real world cases.

Technology :

Technology will be an integral part of this course, as students will be expected to use statistical software (Fathom), spreadsheets (Excel), and presentation software (Power Point) to perform their analyses, present their findings, and investigate topics visually. All students are required to have their own graphing calculator (TI- 84 Plus, TI-83Plus) for this course. A classroom set of TI-84Plus calculators are available for student use in the classroom. These calculators may not be taken out of the classroom, however.

Grading :

• Homework (20 %) - all homework assignments will be graded each night. Students should be aware of the turn-in dates for each assignment as it is given and stick to that turn-in date. Late assignments will lose one letter grade for each day it is late. Special arrangements can be made for excused absences or extreme circumstances. I am a very reasonable teacher - just let me know the circumstances and we can work something out.
• Projects/Critical Statistical Analysis(CSA) (10%) - special assignments will entail some extra work gathering, presenting or interpreting data, corresponding to the chapter material.
• Technology (10%) - making use of software to further understanding of the concepts
• Quizzes(10%) -  a quick review of the day's work or of the previous day's work - format is usually Free Response
• Tests (35%) - a test will be given at the conclusion of each chapter. Part I (Multiple Choice) will be 10-15 questions with a 45-minute time limit. Part II (Free Response) will be 4-10 questions with a 60-minute time limit.
• Review Questions (15%) - throughout the semester you will have review questions taken from different AP sources. These questions could be multiple choice, free response, investigative tasks, or projects. This is to provide ongoing review for the AP Exam in May and to solidify concepts and ideas.

The AP Statistics Exam covers the following four broad themes :

• Exploring data : observing patterns and departures from patterns
• Planning a study : deciding what and how to measure
• Anticipating patterns : producing models using probability theory and simulation
• Statistical inference : confirming models

The broad themes described above cover the following topics :

• Dotplots, stemplots, histograms, cumulative frequency plots, measures of center, measures of spread, position of a term in a distribution, boxplots, the effects of changing units on summary statistics, comparing distributions, scatterplots, correlation and linearity, least square regression, residual plots, outliers and influential points, transformations to achieve linearity, and frequency tables for categorical data.
• Census, surveys, experiments, observational studies, sampling, sources of bias, stratification, randomization, blocking, placebo effect, blinding, completely randomized design, and generalizability of results
• Probability, law of large numbers, addition and multiplication rules, conditional probability, discrete and continuous random variables, simulation, binomial and geometric distributions, linear transformations of random variables, combining independent random variables, independence versus dependence, the normal distribution, sampling distributions, Central Limit Theorem, and simulations of sampling distributions.
• Confidence intervals for one and two means, confidence intervals for one and two proportions, significance tests for means and proportions, errors in hypothesis testing, the power of a test, chi-square tests for goodness-of-fit and for two-way tables, the t-distribution, t-procedures for means and proportions, inference for the slope of the least squares regression line.

The AP Statistics Exam has two sections ;

Section I - contains 40 multiple choice questions. The time allowed for this section is 90 minutes.

Section II - contains six problems. The time allowed for this section is 90 minutes. Section II is divided into two parts;

• Part A has five free response questions for which the student is expected to take about 65 minutes
• Part B has one longer investigative task for which the student is expected to take about 25 minutes

Approved graphing calculators are allowed during all parts of the test. The two sections of the test are completely separate and are administered in separate 90-minute blocks. Please note that a student is not expected to be able to answer all the questions in order to receive a grade of 5. If a student wishes to see the specific instructions for each part of the test, visit the College Board's AP Central Website at :   http://apcentral.collegeboard.com

Every student  will be provided with a set of common statistical formulas and necessary tables on the first day of school. This formula sheet/table will be used almost every day in class.

How the AP Statistics grade is calculated ;

• The exam has a composite score of 100 points : 50 points for the 40 questions in Section I and 50 points for the 6 problems in Section II.
• In Section I , the weighted score is computed as follows ;

              [( # correct) - ( 1/4 (#wrong))] x 1.25 = Weighted Section I Score               minimum score=0

                                                                                                                                                      There is no deduction for blank answers.

• In Section II , each problem is scored holistically on a 4 , 3 , 2 , 1 , 0 basis. These scores can be interpreted as follows ;

              4 = complete response  ,  3 = substantial response  ,  2 = developing response  , 1 = minimal response  , 0 = no credit

              The problems in this section are scored holistically both on computational accuracy and on communication of process. Right answers  without convincing justification may not receive full credit. A rubric is developed for each question, and the readers are carefully trained to apply the rubric consistently. Unlike calculus, where the top score can be obtained only with a perfect solution, a "complete response" does not mean a "perfect response". The quality of the complete solution is considered in assigning the grade. You can make small errors (nonstatistical) and still receive a 4 on a problem.

                Once a score on each of questions 1-5 has been arrived at , that score is multiplied by 1.875. The score of question 6 is multiplied by 3.125( not rounded). The effect of this is to make problems 1-5 worth 75% of Section II and problem 6 worth 25%. The sum of these six scores is the Weighted Score for Section II.

• The weighted scores for Sections I and II are combined to yield a composite score based on 100 (rounded to the nearest whole number).
• The following represents an example of how a composite score is turned into an AP exam grade :

                                Composite Score                     AP Grade

                                     68 - 100                                             5

                                     53 - 67                                               4

                                     40 - 52                                               3

                                     29 - 39                                               2

                                        0 - 28                                               1